Donald Trump

South Africa is bracing for a seismic jolt to its trade relations with the United States after President Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order imposing steep new import duties on dozens of African nations. The directive, issued on July 31 and taking effect in a week, slaps a 30% tariff on all South African exports to America — the highest rate for any Sub-Saharan African country.

The announcement caught Pretoria in the middle of ongoing negotiations aimed at softening a previously proposed 31% rate. In recent months, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration had pitched Washington on large-scale purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas and more than $3 billion in targeted investments in American industries, from mining to manufacturing. A high-profile White House visit in May, however, became sidetracked by Trump’s fixation on “white genocide” narratives, a baseless claim used to justify accepting white Afrikaner refugees from South Africa.

While Ramaphosa has vowed to keep talks alive, Trade Minister Parks Tau confirmed that the government has launched an Export Support Desk to help businesses pivot toward alternative markets. The unit will guide exporters on compliance rules, market entry strategies, and connect them with South African embassies abroad.

South Africa is not alone in feeling the sting. Algeria and Libya have also been hit with 30% tariffs, while Tunisia’s rate has been trimmed slightly to 25%. In contrast, Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, and Namibia saw dramatic reductions to 15%. Lesotho’s tariff dropped from a staggering 50% to 15%, despite earlier fears it could cripple the textile-driven economy. Nigeria’s rate inched up from 14% to 15%.

Trump’s tariff blitz began in April, when he set a 10% baseline duty on all imports into the U.S., with some countries facing rates as high as 50%. The measures, billed as a crackdown on “unfair trade practices,” placed a disproportionate focus on African economies, including Lesotho, Botswana, Madagascar, and Tunisia. At a Rose Garden press event, Trump held up a cardboard display of the “dirty 15” — a mix of nations and the European Union he accused of exploiting American markets.

The U.S. president has claimed that South African goods face 60% duties when entering its market — a figure economists say is dubious at best. “There’s no clear methodology behind that number,” says Dr. Mthokozisi Tshuma, an independent economic analyst. “It seems to blend political grievances with vague references to trade barriers.”

For South Africa, the new tariff could severely impact its automotive sector, the country’s second-largest export category to the U.S. The penalties come on top of an existing 25% levy on imported cars, creating a compounded cost burden that industry leaders warn could slash competitiveness.

Other nations face their own challenges. Lesotho, where U.S. trade represents about 10% of GDP, relies heavily on diamond and textile exports, including products like denim jeans and knitwear. Madagascar and Botswana were handed tariffs of 47% and 38%, respectively, among the steepest in the region.

The timing also throws the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) into doubt. Signed in 2000, AGOA granted eligible African nations duty-free access to the U.S. for certain goods. The program is due for renewal in September, but Trump’s new tariffs could render it effectively meaningless for many countries.

The political undertones of these measures are hard to ignore. Trump’s repeated public criticism of South Africa — often tied to racially charged narratives — has strained bilateral relations. Analysts say the tariffs may be less about trade imbalances and more about signaling political disapproval.

While the European Union, Canada, and Asian trading partners have openly discussed retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., African nations appear hesitant to respond in kind. Many lack the economic leverage to meaningfully impact American exports, and most are choosing quiet diplomacy over confrontation.

“I doubt we’ll see a coordinated African response,” Tshuma explains. “Most governments will likely engage Washington one-on-one, hoping for carve-outs or concessions. For now, it’s a ‘wait and see’ game.”

In Pretoria, business groups are urging the government to move quickly. Manufacturers fear losing U.S. market share to competitors from countries spared the steepest tariffs. Exporters are already assessing the cost of shifting distribution networks to Europe, Asia, or intra-African markets.

For now, the 30% tariff represents not only a financial shock but also a symbolic fracture in what has been a decades-long trade relationship. Unless diplomatic talks yield relief, South African exporters could find themselves priced out of their second-largest non-African market — a reality that may take years to reverse.